The Fermi Paradox ("Where are all the aliens?")

[SpookyZalost]

I agree, when coupled with the scenario in Which we evolved early, and with our local 250ly sphere having been sterilized in the recent past creating distance.

it wraps things up rather neatly.

They're not close enough, are few in number, and are fearful of first contact, likely because they themselves are still rather young in the grand scheme of things.

[Zerg Rush]

There are also other theories, which are not extraterrestrials, but the last survivors of a civilization prior to ours. These took a long time to develop technologies that correspond to these sightings.
We do not forget that ours is about 2 million years old, nothing with the age of life on earth and a minimum of 5 global cataclysms that led to mass extinctions.
Just in the 65 million years since the extinction of the dinosaurs, there would have been plenty of time for an advanced civilization to develop.

Ours has developed the technology we have now in just a few thousand years. What could have developed a civilization prior to ours that could have had millions of years for this in one or more hidden places on Earth?

[SpookyZalost]

So I've discussed it a bit before regarding exoplanets and aliens but we really need a dedicated thread for debating/discussing the various theories of why we may or may not be alone.

So to review for those that don't know.  The Fermi paradox is based on a discussion in 1950 between Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi for whom the theory is named, and his peers Edward Teller, Herbert York, and Emil Konopinski.  It goes a little something like this.

On a warm summer day while out to lunch discussing a recent uptick in UFO reports and the possibility of traveling faster than light Fermi Exclaimed.  "But Where is EVERYBODY!?"

Thus the group began discussing and debating the reasons why or why not someone may be out there among the stars and would eventually lead to other scientists asking questions like how would you define a civilization's level of development, famously proposed by Nikolai Kardashev who attempted to do so based on energy usage to perform tasks.

The Fermi Paradox proposes the following.

•     There are billions of stars in the Milky Way similar to the Sun.
  
•     With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets in a circumstellar habitable zone.
  
•     Many of these stars, and hence their planets, are much older than the Sun.  If Earth-like planets are typical, some may have developed intelligent life long ago.
  
•     Some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, a step humans are investigating now.
  
•     Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in a few million years.
  
•     Since many of the Sun-like stars are billions of years older than the Sun, the Earth should have already been visited by extraterrestrial civilizations, or at least their probes.
  
•     However, there is no convincing evidence that this has happened.
  

Going into that there are several theories from us being early to there being great filters that threaten species attempting to evolve and become a space faring civilization to us being literally alone and unique, to everyone nearby being paranoid and hostile.

The Drake Equation tries to solve this with mathmatics and goes a bit like this.
N = R* Fp Ne Fl Fi Fc L
 

• N is the number of Technologically advanced civilizations in the galaxy, likely near type 1 or better, but clearly no longer tied to their planet and able to communicate with other civilizations.
  
• R*, the rate of formation of stars in the galaxy;
  
• Fp, the fraction of those stars with planetary systems;
  
• Ne, the number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for organic life;
  
• Fl, the fraction of those suitable planets whereon organic life actually appears;
  
• Fi, the fraction of habitable planets whereon intelligent life actually appears;
  
• Fc, the fraction of civilizations that reach the technological level whereby detectable signals may be dispatched; and
  
• L, the length of time that those civilizations dispatch their signals.
  

So far we've been able to answer some of these questions.  The following is based on Current NASA data and esitmations.

• N = Unknown
  
• R*, 1.5 to 3 stars per year.
  
• Fp, 0.8.  Planets are likely the rule given observations with hubble, keplar, and james web space telescopes.
  
• Ne, 0.4.  Not every system but a large majority.  the nearest possible one is Proxima centauri b at 4.2 Light years away in our neighboring star system.
  
• Fl, Unknown, we may discover this as we begin probing our own planets in more depth and explore outward.
  
• Fi, Unknown.
  
• Fc, Unknown
  
• L, this one is estimated at between 50 and 350 years depending on a lot of factors including developing technologies, and those great filters I mentioned.
  

So I figure I'll start with this before broaching broader theories and topics.  So what do you think, initial topic.  Are we alone in the universe, why or why not?

[Kyng]

SpookyZalost - Great post, but unfortunately, we already had a thread about this - and therefore, I've merged them.

But I guess the Drake Equation is a good place to start . We've got some of the variables worked out, but we clearly have some way to go before it gives us a good estimate for the total number of civilisations that are out there.

(Of course, the number is important because some proposed solutions to the Fermi Paradox, such as the Zoo Hypothesis, depend on every extra-terrestrial civilization adhering to them. If N=2, then it's not unreasonable to think that both alien civilizations would comply. But if N=2,000,000... then, it's very difficult to imagine that every single civilization would willing keep itself hidden... there would almost certainly be a few rogues who would reveal themselves to us!)

[SpookyZalost]

SpookyZalost - Great post, but unfortunately, we already had a thread about this - and therefore, I've merged them.

But I guess the Drake Equation is a good place to start . We've got some of the variables worked out, but we clearly have some way to go before it gives us a good estimate for the total number of civilisations that are out there.

(Of course, the number is important because some proposed solutions to the Fermi Paradox, such as the Zoo Hypothesis, depend on every extra-terrestrial civilization adhering to them. If N=2, then it's not unreasonable to think that both alien civilizations would comply. But if N=2,000,000... then, it's very difficult to imagine that every single civilization would willing keep itself hidden... there would almost certainly be a few rogues who would reveal themselves to us!)

That last bit is a key factor in the Dark Forest hypothesis.  Everyone is actually super paranoid because they know that when one species encounters another it's often tense and potentially disastrous.  as for rogues... I guess humans could be considered one lol.  for better or for worse we keep signalling saying we're here without realizing who's really out there.

If you consider some of the very advanced non humans on this planet... say Dolphins for example.  They're very advanced to the point they have almost tribal mentalities, can use tools limited only by their biology, and are very social creatures.  They'd be a great example of Xeno-sociology.  We may not be able to understand their language but we can understand their society and culture by studying their actions right?

Dolphins are a primarily male dominated society.  Very violent.  Tribal mentality.  Often taking women and children from other tribes.  Tend to take control over any region they claim as their territory.  Sounds very much like humans millennia ago really only they can't have fire because ocean.  I'd argue they're sapient rather than just sentient.  Now consider that vastly different structure compared to our own, and we're on the same planet but vastly different formative conditions.

What sorts of societies might be out there?
What if First contact occurs and somebody had a dolphin like mindset only they managed to develop into an interstellar species?

[Kyng]

SpookyZalost - Great post, but unfortunately, we already had a thread about this - and therefore, I've merged them.

But I guess the Drake Equation is a good place to start . We've got some of the variables worked out, but we clearly have some way to go before it gives us a good estimate for the total number of civilisations that are out there.

(Of course, the number is important because some proposed solutions to the Fermi Paradox, such as the Zoo Hypothesis, depend on every extra-terrestrial civilization adhering to them. If N=2, then it's not unreasonable to think that both alien civilizations would comply. But if N=2,000,000... then, it's very difficult to imagine that every single civilization would willing keep itself hidden... there would almost certainly be a few rogues who would reveal themselves to us!)

That last bit is a key factor in the Dark Forest hypothesis.  Everyone is actually super paranoid because they know that when one species encounters another it's often tense and potentially disastrous.  as for rogues... I guess humans could be considered one lol.  for better or for worse we keep signalling saying we're here without realizing who's really out there.

If you consider some of the very advanced non humans on this planet... say Dolphins for example.  They're very advanced to the point they have almost tribal mentalities, can use tools limited only by their biology, and are very social creatures.  They'd be a great example of Xeno-sociology.  We may not be able to understand their language but we can understand their society and culture by studying their actions right?

Dolphins are a primarily male dominated society.  Very violent.  Tribal mentality.  Often taking women and children from other tribes.  Tend to take control over any region they claim as their territory.  Sounds very much like humans millennia ago really only they can't have fire because ocean.  I'd argue they're sapient rather than just sentient.  Now consider that vastly different structure compared to our own, and we're on the same planet but vastly different formative conditions.

What sorts of societies might be out there?
What if First contact occurs and somebody had a dolphin like mindset only they managed to develop into an interstellar species?

Yeah, the Dark Forest Hypothesis has the same issues as the Zoo Hypothesis IMO . After all, it proposes that every advanced alien civilization is silent and paranoid, with the key word being 'every'. Not 'some', not 'most', not even 'all except one', but 'every'.

Now, to be fair, I expect the vast majority of alien civilizations will be silent and paranoid. Most of them will probably have had "first contact" situations between different civilizations on their home world, that ended in disaster for one or both civilizations (the European colonization of the New World being the go-to example on Earth). Many of them will have learned from this experience when dealing with alien civilizations (for example, many of them will have sci-fi stories which pit their own civilization against hostile aliens). But, is this an inevitable step for any alien civilization? I'm not convinced that it is: I don't see why it'd be impossible for a civilization to skip this step, and retain its 'dolphin' mentality right the way into going interstellar.

So, I think advocates of the Dark Forest Hypothesis would need to figure out two things:

1) What is the number of advanced alien civilizations in the galaxy? (i.e. what is 'N' in the Drake Equation?)
2) What is the probability that an advanced alien civilization will have a 'dolphin' mentality? (Let's call this probability 'P').

Then, what the Dark Forest Hypothesis is really proposing, is that N*P < 1 .

[SpookyZalost]

SpookyZalost - Great post, but unfortunately, we already had a thread about this - and therefore, I've merged them.

But I guess the Drake Equation is a good place to start . We've got some of the variables worked out, but we clearly have some way to go before it gives us a good estimate for the total number of civilisations that are out there.

(Of course, the number is important because some proposed solutions to the Fermi Paradox, such as the Zoo Hypothesis, depend on every extra-terrestrial civilization adhering to them. If N=2, then it's not unreasonable to think that both alien civilizations would comply. But if N=2,000,000... then, it's very difficult to imagine that every single civilization would willing keep itself hidden... there would almost certainly be a few rogues who would reveal themselves to us!)

That last bit is a key factor in the Dark Forest hypothesis.  Everyone is actually super paranoid because they know that when one species encounters another it's often tense and potentially disastrous.  as for rogues... I guess humans could be considered one lol.  for better or for worse we keep signalling saying we're here without realizing who's really out there.

If you consider some of the very advanced non humans on this planet... say Dolphins for example.  They're very advanced to the point they have almost tribal mentalities, can use tools limited only by their biology, and are very social creatures.  They'd be a great example of Xeno-sociology.  We may not be able to understand their language but we can understand their society and culture by studying their actions right?

Dolphins are a primarily male dominated society.  Very violent.  Tribal mentality.  Often taking women and children from other tribes.  Tend to take control over any region they claim as their territory.  Sounds very much like humans millennia ago really only they can't have fire because ocean.  I'd argue they're sapient rather than just sentient.  Now consider that vastly different structure compared to our own, and we're on the same planet but vastly different formative conditions.

What sorts of societies might be out there?
What if First contact occurs and somebody had a dolphin like mindset only they managed to develop into an interstellar species?

Yeah, the Dark Forest Hypothesis has the same issues as the Zoo Hypothesis IMO . After all, it proposes that every advanced alien civilization is silent and paranoid, with the key word being 'every'. Not 'some', not 'most', not even 'all except one', but 'every'.

Now, to be fair, I expect the vast majority of alien civilizations will be silent and paranoid. Most of them will probably have had "first contact" situations between different civilizations on their home world, that ended in disaster for one or both civilizations (the European colonization of the New World being the go-to example on Earth). Many of them will have learned from this experience when dealing with alien civilizations (for example, many of them will have sci-fi stories which pit their own civilization against hostile aliens). But, is this an inevitable step for any alien civilization? I'm not convinced that it is: I don't see why it'd be impossible for a civilization to skip this step, and retain its 'dolphin' mentality right the way into going interstellar.

So, I think advocates of the Dark Forest Hypothesis would need to figure out two things:

1) What is the number of advanced alien civilizations in the galaxy? (i.e. what is 'N' in the Drake Equation?)
2) What is the probability that an advanced alien civilization will have a 'dolphin' mentality? (Let's call this probability 'P').

Then, what the Dark Forest Hypothesis is really proposing, is that N*P < 1 .

If that were true we're well and truly screwed.  I mean they could realize we're here, then send deadly von neuman probes to wipe us out.  or hurl a big rock at us, or any number of other things that a type 1 or greater civilization could do that could render our existence moot.

[Kyng]

That last bit is a key factor in the Dark Forest hypothesis.  Everyone is actually super paranoid because they know that when one species encounters another it's often tense and potentially disastrous.  as for rogues... I guess humans could be considered one lol.  for better or for worse we keep signalling saying we're here without realizing who's really out there.

If you consider some of the very advanced non humans on this planet... say Dolphins for example.  They're very advanced to the point they have almost tribal mentalities, can use tools limited only by their biology, and are very social creatures.  They'd be a great example of Xeno-sociology.  We may not be able to understand their language but we can understand their society and culture by studying their actions right?

Dolphins are a primarily male dominated society.  Very violent.  Tribal mentality.  Often taking women and children from other tribes.  Tend to take control over any region they claim as their territory.  Sounds very much like humans millennia ago really only they can't have fire because ocean.  I'd argue they're sapient rather than just sentient.  Now consider that vastly different structure compared to our own, and we're on the same planet but vastly different formative conditions.

What sorts of societies might be out there?
What if First contact occurs and somebody had a dolphin like mindset only they managed to develop into an interstellar species?

Yeah, the Dark Forest Hypothesis has the same issues as the Zoo Hypothesis IMO . After all, it proposes that every advanced alien civilization is silent and paranoid, with the key word being 'every'. Not 'some', not 'most', not even 'all except one', but 'every'.

Now, to be fair, I expect the vast majority of alien civilizations will be silent and paranoid. Most of them will probably have had "first contact" situations between different civilizations on their home world, that ended in disaster for one or both civilizations (the European colonization of the New World being the go-to example on Earth). Many of them will have learned from this experience when dealing with alien civilizations (for example, many of them will have sci-fi stories which pit their own civilization against hostile aliens). But, is this an inevitable step for any alien civilization? I'm not convinced that it is: I don't see why it'd be impossible for a civilization to skip this step, and retain its 'dolphin' mentality right the way into going interstellar.

So, I think advocates of the Dark Forest Hypothesis would need to figure out two things:

1) What is the number of advanced alien civilizations in the galaxy? (i.e. what is 'N' in the Drake Equation?)
2) What is the probability that an advanced alien civilization will have a 'dolphin' mentality? (Let's call this probability 'P').

Then, what the Dark Forest Hypothesis is really proposing, is that N*P < 1 .

If that were true we're well and truly screwed.  I mean they could realize we're here, then send deadly von neuman probes to wipe us out.  or hurl a big rock at us, or any number of other things that a type 1 or greater civilization could do that could render our existence moot.

Yeah, with a bit of luck, they'd realise that we don't have a 'dolphin' mentality, and we're not going to wipe them all out .

Though, I suspect it's possible that we might have ended up with one... if the Nazis had won World War II, and their ideology had become predominant, who's to say they wouldn't have turned it against other alien civilizations once they became interstellar ? Heck, perhaps there's an alien civilization out there that had its own version of World War II, in which the 'Nazis' won... I can't imagine them taking orders from any other alien civilizations!

[SpookyZalost]

Kyng clearly not.  Although scary part is.  For a bit during world war 2 before we went all hold my beer on it.  There was a chance of the United States siding with the Nazis.  Authoritarianism and anti-Semitism was looking pretty good during the great depression and people were desperate for a way out.  Hell hitler had a parade in New York city if I'm remembering right.

Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and we joined the allies instead.

It's also possible btw that there could be hostile xenophobic zealots like the Spanish conquistadors.  They wouldn't take too kindly to someone who doesn't believe in their God being out here.

[Kyng]

Another potential solution, from I video I saw today: the aliens might simply have migrated away from us!



The video is almost 50 minutes long, so I won't go through it in-depth (nor do I expect anybody to watch it ), but there are several variants of this scenario:

• They might have gone to the core of their galaxy (for the valuable energy there);
  
• They might have retreated to the rim of their galaxy (for safety, or for the ability to do more efficient computer calculations in the cooler environment);
  
• If they have time travel, they might have gone to an earlier or later stage of the universe's life;
  
• The most extreme option of all: they might have gone to another universe, or transcended to another dimension of reality!

Of course, these are all highly speculative (especially the last two!) - but, it's another option .